Having a good pick

This week at work we are going to do a combined US/NZ election sweep - in both cases it could either be a close win for the underdog or a landslide. We're going to pick the party vote percentages in NZ and electoral college in the states.

So here goes
NZ
National 44
Labour 38
Green 8
NZ First 5
Maori 2.3 and will win 4 seats
ACT 1.6 but will lose Epsom and be gone
UF 0.5
Prog 0.5

Ok so in Epsom I'm hoping Labourites actually use their brain and vote for Richard Worth (10-15% of Labour voters supported Hide last time FFS). On the Maori seats - I don't believe the hype that they will win all seven Maori seats, they talked up how they were going to get at least 2 new Maori seats last year when the Maori roll was open - and they were embarrassingly way off.

USA
Im going with my heart and picking a landslide - Im backing Obama to pick up Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana on top of the states Kerry won in 04. So that would make it Obama 364 votes to McCain's 174.

In saying that though - I dont think many of those will be big wins and the reality is that even if Obama picks up some of those states it won't matter if McCain can pick up Pennsylvania and hold Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida - he will win. But hey I'm a betting man and will go with the heart on this one.