The Hollow Men

I spent most of today sitting at Oriental Beach reading my photocopied version of Nicky Hagar's new book - The Hollow Men. The book is based on emails leaked from the National Party from late 2003 right through to August 2006.

Hagar (who is from Levin originally) isnt held in high regard - he has tended to exagerate in the past, and is pretty big on conspiracies (eg he was convinced the SIS were spying on the Maori Party - they werent and why would they??). So I was a little sceptical when I heard he was behind the highly anticipated Brash Email book.

But Hagar largely sticks to the facts in this latest outing - he does go off on the odd tangent, but largely he hasnt blown anything too far out of proportion.

There are some absolutely explosive parts to this book, and with the benefit of hindsight, its clear that Brash was sacked last week in advance of this. But maybe because I am in the environment which these emails were written, but some parts which are obviously meant to shock - didnt.

Things that shocked me:

Brash is a lier: He still says that he has only met the Exclusive Brethren once (August 05), when his diary and emails he wrote show he met them as early as December 2004, and was frequently meeting them. He and his whole campaign team knew exactly what the EB had planned and had signed off the pamphlets.

National were prepared to lie about their policies: Realising their policy to increase the age of eligibility for Superannuation (to cut down the numbers on it - making tax cuts a bit more affordable) would piss everyone over 60 off, Brash said "we should just keep that hidden, even possibly lie about it."
Essentially National were looking to avoid talking about anything but preferential treatment for Maori, and tax cuts.

Big big money: We've known for years that the National Party uses Trust funds to launder donations by well known business people - who dont want it known they support National (even though everyone assumes they do anyway). One donor that stood out for me though was one who gave $1m - but is friends with us. Btw the name of the Levin Trust used to launder money locally is Electoral Holdings Ltd.

Dodgy Big Money: Getting donations is fine. Getting donations in return for policies - not fine, in fact illegal. Insurance providers giving money so long as ACC is privatised again. hmmmm.

Things that didnt really shock me but probably will for other people:

Crosby/Textor involvement: Everyone could just tell this as soon as the Orewa Speech was delivered. C/T are an Aussie firm who specialise in running right wing negative campaigns- they are reknowned for their push polling (ringing people and asking a leading question to sow a seed in their mind - eg Would you still support Marian Hobbs if you found out she was a lesbian? - now thats not true, and there is no evidence to suggest that, but a seed is sown).

Orewa was a deliberate ploy: This wasnt an innocent speech that struck a chord, the book shows that Brash was advised to only use half facts, and misleading statistics - which he did.

Things that surprised me:

Level of ACT Party and Backbone Club involvement in positioning Brash for the leadership: These are the people behind the policies of the 80s and 90s which drove NZ into the ground. These people are sooo far extreme right that they even said he shouldnt acknowledge their help as that would lose support. Essentially it was a coup run from outside the party.

Too many know it alls: Brash had like 5 - 10 advisors all giving him different perspectives. No wonder he was dithering. The PM has one key advisor - sure she has others and people outside that she uses as guages basically. You cant have 10 people telling you how to operate you need one clear direction.

Brash got too tired doing visits two days a week: Not up to it basically - the PM does two regional days and then Sat and Sun in Akld - full days of visits and pressing the flesh - thats the job.

Things that Hagar trys to make an issue of which I dont think are:

Framing the debate: Its stupid to think there isnt a concentrated communications strategy prepared around issues. Framing is basically about positioning what you say and how you present it. (eg recently the latest unemployment figures came out - they were up slightly from 3.6% to 3.8% - the govt would say "Unemployment remains the lowest in the OECD and around the lowest rates for 20 years" the opposition would say "Unemployment is beginning ro rise this is an indication the economy is slowing - govt is bad").

Key Lines: Hagar trys to suggest its sinnister that their media staff were preparing what the lines are that they are running on a given issue. No thats their job - they provide good lines for MPs to say. This is the best way of getting the right thing to say out to your whole team, so theyre all singing from the same songsheet - otherwise its chaos!

Brash had a deliberate visit strategy to meet with big business: Well duh. Of course you have a visit strategy - again if there is no plan or system you have chaos, and you wont maximise the time you have available.

I do wonder how someone outside the system would react to this book. I was shocked at their willingness to just lie about their policies - people dont like asset sales so we wont mention it.

I can say with hand on heart that when it comes to actual policy, we are up front. We learnt in 1987 (where the manifesto was released - after the election) that misleading and bullshitting doesnt work (Labour got deservedly smashed in 1990), which is why this govt has had what is almost a motto - Under-promise and Over-deliver. Its better to promise a bit and give people a lot, than promise a lot and give nothing.

National come out of this looking deceitful, and misleading, whether it does any damage outside of the Wellington beltway remains to be seen.