A bold prediction

Right so we're about 12-14 months out from the next election and currently the Nats are unquestionably in pole position with a good 15 point lead. However its my feeling that their lead will only hold up until they start releasing their fundamental policy positions ie will we have cash registers back in hospitals? will they scrap the KiwiSaver tax credits? what state assets will they sell off? will we have widespread roadtolls? (in Sydney for example average car users can pay around A$100 a week in tolls - so will the Nats reduce taxes but slap on new ones in the form of tolls? will that make anyone better off?) what happens with interest free student loans? and so on and so forth. At some point they will have to release policy.

I think in all likelihood National will be the largest party, but there is an element of over-inflation in their polling.

So what will happen? Here's my prediction for the election night result in 2008

National 43 per cent (51 seats)
Labour 38 per cent (46 seats)
Greens 8 per cent (10 seats)
NZ First 5 per cent (6 seats)
Maori Party 2.5 per cent (5 seats - they will win Te Tai Tonga as well as their current 4)
ACT 1.5 per cent (2 seats)
United Future 1 per cent (1 seat)
Progressive 0.8 per cent (1 seat)

So this is how it will line up (total seats 122)
LEFT
Labour (46) + Greens (10) + Progressive (1) = 57 seats
RIGHT
National (51) + ACT (2) = 53 seats
CENTRE
NZ First (6) + Maori (5) + United Future (1) = 12 seats

The simplest government would be Labour + Greens + NZ First + Progressive (63 seats).

The key thing for the remainder of the year and early next year is Labour staying competitive. For me 35 per cent is the crunch point. If they are below it - theyre goneburger. If they are above it and in the late 30s, its game on.