Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Crucial moments

Tomorrow is probably the defining moment of Hillary Clinton's career - if she survives I think there is a good chance she will win the nomination - if not, well that's probably that.

But I was thinking that maybe we're fast approaching a similar point here. For some time I've maintained that if Labour can't consistently stay above 35 per cent support, its in trouble. Basically if Labour polls below 35 - it has no show, and if there are a run of such polls, it may be an indication that voters have hung up on the government - ala 1990 and 1999. If that's the case, and voters have switched off, then we could be looking at a repeat of 2002. That time voters switched off National, who blew out to only 21 per cent support, and looked for a partner for Labour that wasn't the Greens.

I'm not sure we're at such a crucial point quite yet, I think Labour still has cards to play, but we aren't far from that point and I only hope people are still listening when those cards are finally played.

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