The Democratic Primary campaign is well underway, the three front runners, Senator Clinton, Senator Obama and former Senator and 2004 Vice Presidential nominee, John Edwards have all begun strongly.
As I have said before while Clinton is clearly the favourite, and in nationwide polls has opened up a 17 per cent advantage over nearest rival Barack Obama, Im still not convinced that she is electable. The first polls in the states where the first party caucuses (primary elections) are held appear to be showing my thoughts could be on the money. In New Hampshire (where I will prob spend some time campaigning next year) Obama has a 5 point lead over Clinton and nearly a 10 point lead over Edwards, but the big shock for me is Iowa.
Iowa is a funny state, but crucial to anyones chances, if you fall badly at Iowa - youre stuffed. In 2004 Howard Dean was the clear favourite for the Democratic nomination, but from absolutely nowhere and thanks to doing the hard yards, John Kerry took Iowa, and never looked back.
On current polling, Clinton is not only behind, but is way back in fourth place. John Edwards holds a slight advantage over Obama, with Clinton trailing. This is important because Iowa is where most of the hardcore campaigning will happen in the next 12 months, and with Clinton being written off by some already, she has a long way to go to avoid an embarassing first up thrashing - which could de-rail her campaign entirely.
To have any chance, candidates have to perform strongly in the early races. If Obama and Edwards are able to open up any sort of early lead, it may well be too much for Clinton to pull back.
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2 comments:
Why is Iowa so important?
Its first up basically, its not that you can't win if you lose in Iowa, but if you lose badly, which on current polling, Clinton would, then youre waayy on the back foot, and give a major advantage to Edwards or Obama. All the early caucuses or primaries are huge.
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