As part of my new job I have begun doing a "poll of polls" and I thought - wait a sec! that would make a half interesting post!
So here it is. There have been two polls since the beginning of 2007. Roy Morgan on 30 Jan, and TV3/TNS on 5 February. The poll of polls is done by simply taking the mean results by party across all the polls in this period. Granted not that scientific, but avoids rogue polls and is quite a good gauge. Roy Morgan had Labour and National even on 41, while TV3 gave Labour a 3 point lead - the first poll Labour has led since August.
The poll with december rating in brackets
Labour - 42.5 (38)
National - 41 (43.5)
Green - 7.75 (8.5)
New Zealand First - 3.4 (4.5) - Would be a goneburger completely with no electorate seat
Maori - 2 (1.75) - Party would hold 4 Maori seats
ACT - 1.15 (1) - Hide would hold Epsom
United Future - 0.9 (1.75) - Dunne would hold Ohariu-Belmont
Progressives - 0.25 (0.25) - Anderton would hold Wigram
(Anderton and one of the Maori seats will cause the house to "overhang" by two seats)
On these ratings the house and government would look like this:
Government - 65 seats
Labour 53, Greens 10, Progressive 1 and probably United Future 1
Oppositition - 57 seats
National 52, Maori 4, ACT 1
The high rating the Greens are recording is a good sign, this is probably an indication of the coverage they have been getting over Climate Change in recent months.
While Labour and the Greens could govern alone, I would expect the PM to still involve Anderton and Dunne, as much to maintain those relationships as anything else.
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2 comments:
looks like some good polling. Though, I'd like to see labour and the greens getting a bit more of an edge over national, but not too much cause I wouldn't want labour going it alone!
Totally, but all the same - id be stoked with that result, and remember that would create a majority govt - which Helen has never had.
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