The Big Costello

Turning across the Tasman for a second I thought I would make some bold predictions of what i think is going to happen in the post-Howard era for the Liberal Party. Now while many of us have delighted in the fall of Howard and his cronies the manner in which the Party was crushed and gone from being a political powerhouse to something that resembles post-Tsunami Myanmar has had loads of people talking about how the Liberals will rebuild themselves.

Following the election, former Treasurer and Howard heir apparent, Peter Costello, seemed destined to take over the Libs and try to rebuild them - but of course he didn't, and instead 'honourably' stepped aside to let a new breed through. The ever irritating former leader and Howard Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer, similarly went to the backbench and appeared to be positioning himself for a future tilt at the South Australian Premiership (which he probably wouldn't win anyway against Kiwi expat and incumbent - Mike Rann).

Former Defence Minister, Brendan Nelson, beat out the more popular and electable former Environment Minister, Malcolm Turnbull for the leadership and has only really succeeded in making matters worse by taking the Party to new polling lows.

Till now I, like many people, have thought that its just a matter of time before Turnbull comes in like the cavalry and rebuilds the Party like David Cameron in the UK and John Key in New Zealand. But of late I've been pondering what really might be happening - and its all about Costello and Downer and how it will be them and not Turnbull that take over.

The party is hugely divided along factional lines and for every step forward, it has been pushed back two steps by internal fighting, mainly driven by the Costello-Kroeger faction from Victoria. Costello knew the party was going to be in a mess post election, and knew he would be pissing in the wind if he tried taking on Rudd while he was riding his post election honeymoon wave - which is why he didnt take the leadership. He also knew Turnbull wouldnt get the numbers. So the previously inoffensive but not particularly capable Nelson would become leader with Turnbull as shadow Treasurer and Downer and Costello would appear to be heading towards honourable exits from the political landscape on the backbenches.

But I think that Costello and Downer planned this whole situation. They have actively worked against Nelson behind the scenes and have blocked any attempt to kickstart the Party and I think they have used him as collateral damage and set him up to take the worst of the post-election carnage. Costello didnt want to inherit a mess and he knew it was only going to get worse in the interim. Not only are Costello and Downer waiting for Nelson to crash and burn, but they're also setting him up to take the fall.

In time they will then unleash a campaign to further kill off Nelson and do enough damage Turnbull to ruin his chances of taking the leadership in the near future, which will then see the Party becoming 'desperate' and pleading for Costello and Downer to return and lead them to promise land. Turnbull will be so wounded that while he will probably mount a leadership bid, Costello and Downer will crush him and Costello will become leader and Rasputin himself, Downer, will become shadow Treasurer.

So I guess we'll watch this space, but I don't think the situation is as simple as I first thought and I predict that Costello and Downer will lead the Liberals into the next election.